2026 US Midterms
Trends & Toss-Ups!
Image Credit: Vor News
In the US, midterm elections are typically a check on the party in power. Coming halfway through a President’s 4-year term, the elections see every seat in the House of Representatives and a third of those in the Senate up for grabs, in addition to various other races at the state and local levels. The party in opposition usually makes substantial inroads as voters take out their frustrations on the party controlling the Presidency. As Republicans have had a ‘trifecta’ – that is, controlling all of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives – since 2024, they have no excuse regarding broken campaign promises and will thus likely be punished for the increasing cost of living and the ongoing housing crisis. Many parallels will be drawn to the 2018 Midterms during Trump’s first term, which saw a significant ‘blue wave’ and presented a marked shift in public opinion against the first Trump administration. Democrats have real potential to flip the House, which would require claiming at least 23 seats from Republicans. Republicans are defending significantly more seats than Democrats which, paired with typical midterm trends and Trump’s historically low approval ratings, makes substantial Republican losses likely.
There are 33 regularly scheduled Senate elections and 2 special elections (to fill the former Senate seats of Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio). A number of veteran seats are expected to be fiercely contested. Additionally, there are 36 gubernatorial elections, 15 of which have term-limited incumbents. The results of some of these races will dictate the playing field for the 2028 presidential primaries for both parties.
Seats to watch include:
- House: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY).
- Senate: Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX).
- Governorships: Arizona, California, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Shortlist of notable races:
The Texas Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn is being seriously contested in both party primaries. On the Republican side, State Attorney General Ken Paxton looks to be the frontrunner. He is a MAGA favourite and was endorsed by Turning Point USA but has also been plagued by scandal and, if nominated, would likely make the general election more difficult for Republicans to win because the four-time incumbent, Cornyn, is more palatable to the broader, non-MAGA population. This race will be heading to a runoff between the two Republican frontrunners. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico fought a very close fight for the nomination. The two have similar stances on policy, but vastly different styles: Rep. Crockett has appealed to more progressive voters and is known for insulting the Trump administration. Talarico has appealed to more moderate independents and Republicans and emphasised his experience as a Presbyterian seminarian, using his faith to oppose Republican policies such as displaying the Ten Commandments in Texan public schools. Today, Talarico was declared the winner, with 53% of the Democratic vote to Crockett’s 46%. The November race between Talarico and his Republican opponent will be one of the most expensive of the year for both parties. Read more on the Texas race here.
The North Carolina 4th Congressional District Democratic Primary reveals three interesting tensions: progressivism vs. moderation, the importance of Israel as a political issue, and the impact of pro-AI regulation group Public Action First. Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee is supported by North Carolina’s mainstream Democrats, including Governor Roy Cooper, but has been criticised for accepting donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and Public Action First’s Anthropic. The challenger, county commissioner Nida Allam, is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Leaders We Deserve, and is seen as the more progressive option. As of my writing this, Foushee leads Allam, but only by about 1,000 votes, and the race has not been called yet.
The Democratic Primary for the California gubernatorial race will have interesting indications for the Democratic Party’s plan in its most important stronghold. Democratic candidates include former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Rep. Katie Porter, billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The crowded field represents a number of different avenues the Democratic Party could move towards. Additionally, term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom’s presidential ambitions will be influenced by the narrative he spins about his own state’s future.
Thank you for reading this primer on the 2026 US Midterms, and make sure to come along to our live event, ‘US Midterms: Trends and Toss-Ups’ with special guest Professor Christopher Carman from the University of Glasgow! The event is a collaboration between Backbench Podcast and Democrats Overseas, and will take place at Lister Learning Centre from 6-7pm on Friday, 6 March. Hope to see you all there!
Kind regards,
Alex Daniels and Anna Bronwyn Turney